Our Blogposts

The week beginning Monday, the 28^th November is Week 48 as per ISO numbering convention of the weeks of a year.

Country in focus:

This week we look at the Stocks from UK in FTMC: FTSE 250 index.

Stock/ETF in focus:

Specific Stock in focus HarbourVest Global Private Equity Ltd. (Ticker: HVPE). The Stock is listed in the London Stock Exchange, trading currency being GBp or Great Britain Pound Sterling Penny (0.01 of GBP).  

Trade Direction:

BULLISH, Seasonality study for last 10 years reveal 100.0% probability of success in a BUY (LONG) trade for the Week 48 and 80% probability for the trade next week (Week 49).

Probability is NOT certainty, so always trade with absolute control over risk. Two ways to do it: firstly, allocation of funds and secondly, implementing a Reward-Risk Ratio (RRR) regime with strict Stop Loss (SL) in the trade.

Please see the Summary report screenshot later in the blog for more details on all the parameters mentioned.

Overview:

HarbourVest Global Private Equity Ltd. specializes in primary, secondary, and direct co-investments as well as fund of funds investments. For fund of funds investments, it prefers to invest in private equity funds and invests in HarbourVest funds. The fund seeks to provide long-term capital growth primarily through investments in private market assets.

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Sector and Industry Details:

Sector(s):                              Financial Services

Industry:                               Asset Management

Full Time Employees:        1000+

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance and LinkedIn)

Fundamentals:

52 Week Range       1,986.11 - 2,945.00

Volume                     97,604

Avg. Volume             141,153

Market Cap              1.914B

Beta (5Y Monthly)  0.69

PE Ratio (TTM)        7.83

EPS (TTM)                 3.09

Earnings Date          Oct 27, 2022

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Current trading price:

As of Friday, close of 25^th November 2022, the stock was trading at 2420.00. All prices are in GBp or Great Britain Pound Sterling Penny (0.01 of GBP).

SEASONALITY:

The stock demonstrated very strong SEASONAL move in week 48 of the year, here are some of the details of its SEASONAL behaviour.

Summary report: In 10 out of last 10 years in week 48, the stock was BULLISH with average move up (AMU) of 8.53% and average move down (AMD) of 1.21% for an average holding time (ADH) of 45 days. The worst-case average Reward-Risk Ratio (RRR) for all 10 trades over last 10 years was a staggering 4.89:1. See the summary report table below:

Detailed Report, Trade Performance: If only 100 stocks were bought in the beginning of week 47 every year for last 10 years, then a trader would have had a Gross Profit of GBP 1,189.90, Gross Loss of only 0, making a Total Net Profit of GBP 1189.90. No leverage applied.

In those 10 years, the Largest Win was GBP 295.00, Largest Loss was 0, the Average profit/trade being GBP 118.99. Profit factor (quotient of Gross Profit and Gross Loss) being INFINITY. All figures excluding trading commissions. Please see the section of the detailed report below.

Detailed Report, Year by Year Trade Performance: Trades taken at the beginning of Week 48 for all years of last 10 years were winners. Please see the section of the detailed report below.

Line Chart: Although the chart is always available in the Seasonality app detailed report, but for the first time, the chart is being included in the blog so as to demonstrate how the underlying Stock or ETF moved for the duration the trade was open.

Histogram Chart: The chart below shows the percentage moves of the underlying Stock of Interest in each of the years in the Seasonality analysis, for a quick visual clue of the year-by-year trade performance.

Candlestick Chart: The candlestick chart of the underlying Stock/ETF’s latest performance is as shown below. In the web-based Seasonality trading application, the chart is available for all the years of the Seasonality analysis.

Trade Structure:

If we had traded the Stock this week, then we would have structured the trade as follows:

The choice of RRR of 4.44:1 is in line with the worst-case average RRR from the last 10 trades in each of the last 10 years in Week 48, since 2012 till 2021.

Please note that the RoI of return on investment is 10% minus commissions etc.

Further Information about trading applications:

Please visit the following URL for more information on various trading applications from Sapphire Capitals which are designed to deliver high probability trading opportunities for swing trading as well as for intraday trading:

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-seasonality-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-price-action-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-volume-spike-stock-trading-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/day-trading-intraday-seasonality-trading/

Disclaimer:

Sapphire Private Assets (ABN: 34 613 892 023, trading as Sapphire Capitals) is not a broker or a financial adviser but an education and research organisation; we provide training and tools for traders and DIY fund managers for trading in global financial markets. The contents of the blog have been produced by using technical analysis and trading applications developed by Sapphire Capitals for the Stock and ETF traded worldwide. The contents of this blog are intended for education and research purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any Stock or ETF.

For more details, please visit www.sapphirecapitals.com/Disclaimer.