Positive Expectancy: Data-Backed Strategies for Sustained Profitability

Positive expectancy is key to sustained profitability and long-term success in trading in Stock market. Many traders do not know what is positive expectancy, what it is made up of and how to apply this to trading in Stocks and ETFs. Positive expectancy privides a disciplined framework around trading as it combines probability and money management discipline in one one. That's why successful traders of Stock or ETF are always in lookout for high probability trading opportunities and particularly ones which had historically high reward-risk ratio. The combination of probability and risk management ensures that the trading capital is preserved while slowly building on the profits.

With the advent of technology such as data mining, cloud computing and analytics, it has become possible to analyse tens of billions of data points for each Stock or ETF or Index to find past performance patterns that can translate into high probability trades. Our trading applications are designed to find these repeating patterns with the chosen level of confidence or the probability of recurrence.

Seasonality Trading App

Most businesses are heavily seasonal and their Stock price movements follow this seasonal behaviour creating a repeating pattern that is predictable.

Several factors can cause such seasonal price behaviour such as annual tax cycles, earnings reports, politics, holiday spending, weather cycles, to name a few. Sapphire’s Seasonality trading app analyses billions of data points in history of the Stock or ETF going as far back as the beginning of trading of the underlying and provides summary and detailed report of the period during which the Stock or ETF made major moves most number of times, the highs and lows during that time, days it took for reaching those levels and all these supported by user-friendly charts and table to interpret the analysis results.

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Volume Spike Trading App

A spike in daily trading volume is a very key indicator of where the underlying Stock or ETF is headed in short term. As an example, a 3X spike in average daily trading volume of Boral Ltd (ASX: BLD) followed a surge in the stock price of over 10% in next 15 trading days. A 4X spike in daily trading volume of Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) followed over 6.7% decrease in stock price in next 30 trading days.

Analysing these spikes in daily trading volume of a Stock or ETF and the price patterns that followed using a time tested algorithm, going as far back in history as the beginning of trading of that Stock or ETF, our Volume spike trading app is able to provide impressive predictive abilities and open up some of the best swing trading opportunities with very high level of confidence.

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Price Action Trading App

Price action trading is about finding out if an underlying Stock or ETF is demonstrating certain characteristics in terms of momentum or trend or volume or volatility or various combinations of these. Typically, traders use a range of indicators to make sense of the current state of the price action and assess possible future movement of the underlying Stock or ETF.

The algorithm behind our price action trading app, developed with years of research, uses a proprietary combination of indicators to find the history of price action patterns and their success rate for any number of years as the user choses, going as far back as since the Stock or ETF had started trading. So when a price action event occurs, the trader can make the trading decision based on the probability of recurrence of the price action pattern and expected levels of highs and lows.

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Intraday Seasonality Day Trading App

Looking at the daily chart of a Stock or ETF might, it might appear like a move only by a small percentage during the trading day, but it actually moves between the highs and lows of the day and in most occasions these highs and lows are created in certain hours of the day following a historical pattern.

Our Intraday seasonality day trading app looks at the top Stock or ETF in the global market and picks up the daily movements of the underlying to provide the historical track record of the time of the day at which the underlying moved, the direction and by how much in a summary report and detailed report. All these are based on the user selection of underlying universe of Stock or ETF, the look-back period and the minimum confidence of the recurring patterns.

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  • 4

    Continents

  • 36+

    Countries

  • 150

    Indices

  • 45000

    STOCK/ETF/INDICES

About Us

Sapphire Capitals is a proprietary asset management firm based in Sydney, Australia with principal activities around managing own funds, financial market research and development of strategies for trading in global financial markets, primarily aimed at traders and DIY fund managers.

The current portfolio of trading technologies include stock market data mining, Seasonality trading analytics, Volume spike trading analytics, Price-action trading analytics and Intraday day trading seasonality analytics covering over 45,000 Stocks, ETFs and Indices from more than 30 countries in 4 continents.

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