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The week beginning Monday, the 24^th October is Week 43 as per ISO numbering convention of the weeks of a year.

Country in focus:

This week we look at the Stocks from UK in FTMC: FTSE 250 index.

Stock/ETF in focus:

Specific Stock in focus Hill & Smith Holdings PLC (Ticker: HILS). The Stock is listed in the London Stock Exchange, trading currency being GBp or Great Britain Pound Sterling Penny (0.01 of GBP).

Trade Direction:

BULLISH, Seasonality study for last 10 years reveal 90.0% probability of success in a BUY (LONG) trade for this week and also 90% probability for the trade next week (Week 44). Please see the Summary report screenshot later in the blog.

Overview:

Hill & Smith Holdings PLC manufactures and supplies infrastructure products in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, the Middle East, rest of Asia, and internationally. Hill & Smith Holdings PLC was founded in 1824 and is headquartered in Solihull, the United Kingdom.

The company operates through Roads & Security; Utilities; and Galvanizing Services segments. The Roads & Security segment designs, manufactures, and installs temporary and permanent safety products for the roads market, as well as provides range of security products to protect people, buildings, and infrastructure from attacks, including hostile vehicle mitigation solutions, high security fencing, and automated gate solutions. This segment also offers permanent road safety barriers, renewable energy lighting and power solutions, temporary work zone protection products, perimeter security, pedestrian protection products, intelligent traffic solutions, street lighting columns, and car park and bridge parapets. The Utilities segment supplies engineered steel and composite solutions for a range of infrastructure markets, including energy generation and distribution, marine, rail, and housing sectors; and supplies engineered pipe supports for the water, power, and liquid natural gas markets, as well as offers seismic protection solutions. This segment also produces steel products for construction industries, such as residential construction and data centres. The Galvanizing Services segment provides corrosion protection services in the form of hot-dip zinc galvanizing and other coatings for steel products, which includes steel works, lighting columns, bridges, agricultural equipment, and other products for the industrial and infrastructure markets.

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Sector and Industry Details:

Sector(s):                              Industrials

Industry:                               Engineering & Construction

Full-time employees:        4,400

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Fundamentals:

52-week range        859.00 - 1,890.00

Avg. volume             106,140

Market cap               769.674M

PE ratio (TTM)         15.77

EPS (TTM)                 0.61

Earnings date          03 Aug 2022

Ex-dividend date    01 Dec 2022

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Current trading price:

As of Friday, close of 21^st October 2022, the stock was trading at 962.00. All prices are in GBp.

SEASONALITY:

The stock demonstrated very strong SEASONAL move in week 43 of the year, here are some of the details of its SEASONAL behaviour.

Summary report: In 9 out of last 10 years in week 43, the stock was BULLISH with average move up (AMU) of 15.12% and average move down (AMD) of 2.52% for an average holding time (ADH) of 41 days. The worst-case average Reward-Risk Ratio (RRR) for all 10 trades over last 10 years was 4.24:1. See the summary report table below:

Detailed Report, Trade Performance: If 100 stocks were bought in the beginning of week 43 every year for last 10 years, then a trader would have had a Gross Profit of GBP125,850, Gross Loss of GBP5,000, making a Total Net Profit of GBP120,850.

In those 10 years, the Largest Win was GBP28,250, Largest Loss is GBP5,000, the Average profit/trade being GBP12,085. Profit factor (quotient of Gross Profit and Gross Loss) being 25.17. All figures excluding trading commissions. Please see the section of the detailed report below.

Detailed Report, Year by Year Trade Performance: Trades taken at the beginning of Week 43 for all years of last 10 years was winners, except for the year 2021. Please see the section of the detailed report below.

Histogram Chart: The chart below shows the percentage moves of the underlying Stock of Interest in each of the years in the Seasonality analysis, for a quick visual clue of the year-by-year trade performance.

Candlestick Chart: The candlestick chart of the underlying Stock/ETF’s latest performance is as shown below. In the web-based Seasonality trading application, the chart is available for all the years of the Seasonality analysis.

Trade Structure:

If we had traded the Stock this week, then we would have structured the trade as follows:

The choice of RRR of 4:1 is in line with the worst-case average RRR from the last 10 trades in each of the last 10 years in Week 42, since 2012 till 2021.

Further Information about trading applications:

Please visit the following URL for more information on various trading applications from Sapphire Capitals which are designed to deliver high probability trading opportunities for swing trading as well as for intraday trading:

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-seasonality-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-price-action-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-volume-spike-stock-trading-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/day-trading-intraday-seasonality-trading/

Disclaimer:

Sapphire Private Assets (ABN: 34 613 892 023, trading as Sapphire Capitals) is not a broker or a financial adviser but an education and research organisation; we provide training and tools for traders and DIY fund managers for trading in global financial markets. The contents of the blog have been produced by using technical analysis and trading applications developed by Sapphire Capitals for the Stock and ETF traded worldwide. The contents of this blog are intended for education and research purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any Stock or ETF.

For more details, please visit www.sapphirecapitals.com/Disclaimer.