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The week beginning Monday, the 17^th October is Week 42 as per ISO numbering convention of the weeks of a year.

Country in focus:

This week we look at the Stocks from Germany in GDAXI: DAX INDEX index.

Stock/ETF in focus:

Specific Stock in focus Porsche Automobil Holding SE (Ticker: PAH3). The Stock is listed in the German Stock Exchange Deutsche Börse XETRA, trading currency being Euro or EUR.

Trade Direction:

BULLISH, Seasonality study for last 10 years reveal 90.0% probability of success in a BUY (LONG) trade for this week and also 80% probability for the trade next week (Week 43). Please see the Summary report screenshot later in the blog.

Overview:

Porsche Automobil Holding SE, through its subsidiaries, operates as an automobile manufacturer worldwide. The company was formerly known as Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft and changed its name to Porsche Automobil Holding SE in November 2007. Porsche Automobil Holding SE is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.

It operates through two segments, PSE and Intelligent Transport Systems. The company offers motorcycles, small cars, and luxury vehicles, as well as commercial vehicles, such as pick-ups, buses, and heavy trucks under the Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, ŠKODA, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, Ducati, Scania, and MAN brand names. It also develops software solutions for transport logistics, as well as traffic planning and management; and provides dealer and customer financing, leasing, banking, insurance, fleet management, and mobility services. Porsche has an agreement with ABB to develop a high-power charger for its electric vehicles in Japan.

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Sector and Industry Details:

Sector(s):                              Consumer Cyclical

Industry:                               Auto Manufacturers

Full-time employees:        35

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Fundamentals:

52-week range                                55.36 - 97.66

Avg. volume                                     928,035

Market cap                                       17.45B

Beta (5Y monthly)                          1.61

PE ratio (TTM)                                 3.33

EPS (TTM)                                         17.11

Earnings date                                  08 Nov 2022

Forward dividend & yield             2.56 (4.48%)

Ex-dividend date                            16 May 2022

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Current trading price:

As of Friday, close of 14^th October 2022, the stock was trading at 56.98. All prices are in EUR.

SEASONALITY:

The stock demonstrated very strong SEASONAL move in week 42 of the year, here are some of the details of its SEASONAL behaviour.

Summary report: In 9 out of last 10 years in week 42, the stock was BULLISH with average move up (AMU) of 14.90% and average move down (AMD) of 5.42% for an average holding time (ADH) of 44 days. The worst-case average Reward-Risk Ratio (RRR) for all 10 trades over last 10 years was 1.91:1. See the summary report table below:

Detailed Report, Trade Performance: If 1,000 stocks were bought in the beginning of week 42 every year for last 10 years, then a trader would have had a Gross Profit of EUR78,570, Gross Loss of EUR6,000, making a Total Net Profit of EUR72,570.

In those 10 years, the Largest Win was EUR13,940, Largest Loss is EUR6,000, the Average profit/trade being EUR7,260. Profit factor (quotient of Gross Profit and Gross Loss) being 13.10. All figures excluding trading commissions. Please see the section of the detailed report below.

Detailed Report, Year by Year Trade Performance: Trades taken at the beginning of Week 42 for all years of last 10 years was winners, except for the year 2021. Please see the section of the detailed report below.

Histogram Chart: The chart below shows the percentage moves of the underlying Stock of Interest in each of the years in the Seasonality analysis, for a quick visual clue of the year-by-year trade performance.

Candlestick Chart: The candlestick chart of the underlying Stock/ETF’s latest performance is as shown below. In the web-based Seasonality trading application, the chart is available for all the years of the Seasonality analysis.

Trade Structure:

If we had traded the Stock this week, then we would have structured the trade as follows:

The choice of RRR of 2:1 is in line with the worst-case average RRR from the last 10 trades in each of the last 10 years in Week 42, since 2012 till 2021.

Further Information about trading applications:

Please visit the following URL for more information on various trading applications from Sapphire Capitals which are designed to deliver high probability trading opportunities for swing trading as well as for intraday trading:

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-seasonality-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-price-action-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-volume-spike-stock-trading-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/day-trading-intraday-seasonality-trading/

Disclaimer:

Sapphire Private Assets (ABN: 34 613 892 023, trading as Sapphire Capitals) is not a broker or a financial adviser but an education and research organisation; we provide training and tools for traders and DIY fund managers for trading in global financial markets. The contents of the blog have been produced by using technical analysis and trading applications developed by Sapphire Capitals for the Stock and ETF traded worldwide. The contents of this blog are intended for education and research purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any Stock or ETF.

For more details, please visit www.sapphirecapitals.com/Disclaimer.