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The week beginning Monday, the 13^th June is Week 24 as per ISO numbering convention of the weeks of a year.

Country in focus:

This week we look at the Stocks from AUSTRALIA in ASX300 index.

Stock/ETF in focus:

Specific Stock in focus Origin Energy Limited (Ticker: ORG) in the Energy Sector and Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

Trade Direction:

BEARISH, Seasonality study for last 10 years reveal 100.0% probability of success in a SELL (SHORT) trade.

Quick note on the Stock: With inflation is on rise around the world and central banks looking to hike the interest rates, the energy stocks seem to be under significant pressure around the world. A quick scan of Stocks in most developed countries reveal that energy Stocks were down in many countries with varied degree of bearishness. Since Stocks are under pressure in most countries because of the uncertainties around the inflation for last few weeks, we would look for short trades to align with the market trend.

Overview:

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Energy Markets and Integrated Gas. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; provides GreenPower and green gas products; and supplies LPG to homes and businesses. In addition, it offers electric and gas hot water systems, as well as hot water systems repair and replacement services; split system air conditioners; ducted and space heating solutions; ducted evaporative cooling systems; and ducted reverse cycle air conditioning systems. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance)

Sector and Industry Details:

Sector(s):                              Energy

Industry:                               Oil & Gas Integrated

Full-time employees:        5,000

Fundamentals:

52 Week Range       4.05 - 7.13

Avg. Volume             6,979,473

Market Cap              10.849B

EPS (TTM)                 -1.27

Ex-Dividend Date    Mar 01, 2022

Current trading price:

As of Friday, close of 10^th June 2022, the stock was trading at 6.16.

SEASONALITY:

The stock demonstrated strong SEASONAL BEARISH move in week 24 of the year, here are some of the details of its SEASONAL behaviour, remember this is a BEARISH trade and we are looking for the Stock price to FALL to profit from the trade:

• In 10 out of last 10 years in week 24, the stock was BEARISH with average move down (AMD) of 10.14% and average move up (AMU) of 2.99% for an average holding time (ADH) of only about 14 days.
• If 1,000 stocks were bought in the beginning of week 24 every year for last 10 years, then a trader would have had a Gross Profit of $8,830, Gross Loss of $0, making a Total Net Profit of $8,830. All figures are in AUD and excluding commissions.
• In those 10 years, the Largest Win was $2,000, Largest Loss is $0, the Average profit/trade being $880. All figures are in AUD and excluding commissions.
• The average Reward-Risk Ratio (RRR) in those trades were over 3:1.

Trade Structure:

We would trade the Stock as CFD trade, structured as follows with RRR of 3:1:

The choice of RRR of 3:1 is historically consistent with the averages of the 10 trades over last 10 years, since 2012.

Charts:

Summary report extract:

Trade Performance (Single Stock/ETF/Index, non-leveraged): 2012-2021:

Year by year Trade Performance:

Histogram:

Latest event candlestick chart:

Further Information about trading applications:

Please visit the following URL for more information on various trading applications from Sapphire Capitals which are designed to deliver high probability trading opportunities for swing trading as well as for intraday trading:

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-seasonality-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-stock-price-action-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/swing-trading-volume-spike-stock-trading-strategy/

https://www.sapphirecapitals.com/pages/day-trading-intraday-seasonality-trading/

Disclaimer:

Sapphire Private Assets (ABN: 34 613 892 023, trading as Sapphire Capitals) is not a broker or a financial adviser but an education and research organisation; we provide training and tools for traders and DIY fund managers for trading in global financial markets. The contents of the blog have been produced by using technical analysis and trading applications developed by Sapphire Capitals for the Stock and ETF traded worldwide. The contents of this blog are intended for education and research purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any Stock or ETF.

For more details, please visit www.sapphirecapitals.com/Disclaimer.